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Prediction for CME (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-08-30T20:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40987/-1
CME Note: Wide CME observed first by STEREO A COR2 at 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Updated observations in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 from preliminary analysis where they were not included due to field-of-view with GOES CCOR-1 and a downlink gap resuming at 2025-08-30T21:20Z for SOHO LASCO. The source for this CME is a long duration M2.7 class flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) which began at 2025-08-30T19:11Z and peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z, viewed well in SDO AIA 131. Wide field line opening, dimming, and an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211 and GOES SUVI 284. Brightening as a double ribbon flare and post-eruptive arcade observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211/304 and GOES SUVI 304. Additionally observed from STEREO A EUVI 195 as field line opening and dimming, and STEREO A EUVI 304 as brightening, around N03E60 as viewed from STEREO A. Arrival: Significant shock arrival with magnetic field rapidly increasing from 5 nT to 26 nT over several minutes near 2025-09-01T20:26Z in association with the arrival of CMEs: 2025-08-30T00:23Z and halo CME 2025-08-30T20:09Z. Wind speeds rapidly increase from 390 km/s to 675 km/s, and temperature rapidly increases from 80,000 Kelvin to over 1 million Kelvin following the arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T20:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-09-01T21:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 30/2245UTC
Radial velocity (km/s): 1420km/s
Longitude (deg): 3E
Latitude (deg): 6N
Half-angular width (deg): 36

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 31.87 hour(s)
Difference: -0.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2025-08-31T12:34Z

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